Policy Papers
Private and public sectors of the Belarusian economy
The private sector of the Belarusian economy experienced dynamic growth in the 2010s and, by the beginning of the current decade, had equaled the public sector in its contribution to GDP. Since 2020, the institutional environment for entrepreneurship has deteriorated, and the tightening of sanctions pressure since 2022 has further complicated conditions for private businesses. These changes, combined with a reduction in the volume of publicly available official statistical data, have raised concerns about a significant decline in the private sector's contribution to the Belarusian economy after 2019.
This study aims to systematize and analyze the dynamics of key indicators of the development of the private and public sectors of the economy after 2019. The results show that private businesses continued to play a crucial role in the Belarusian economy, generating about half of the gross value added in 2021–2024. However, the trend of increasing the share of private businesses in the economy, which had been observed before 2020, came to a halt in 2021–2024. The share of state-owned enterprises remained excessively high compared to Central and Eastern European countries, despite being less efficient than private firms. If the status quo is maintained, it is difficult to expect a sustainable increase in long-term economic growth in Belarus.