Working Papers
Assessment of Changes of Military Expenditures Since the Start of Russia's Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
The research analyzes the military expenditures of countries that are either directly involved in or border the Ukraine-Russia conflict zone. The assessment covers the period from 2022 to 2024 and includes both actual data and projected estimates up to 2025. The analysis is based on national data from the examined countries, supplemented by information from research institutes and NATO. The final section of the study presents a comparative analysis of Ukraine, Russia, Poland, Lithuania, and Belarus to determine how national defense policies have evolved since the beginning of Russia's full-scale aggression against Ukraine.
Introduction
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led not only to an increase in military expenditures in Ukraine and Russia but also may have influenced national defense strategies in other countries in the region. Like Poland and Lithuania, Belarus is located in close proximity to the conflict. Geopolitical instability indirectly poses a threat to the national security of these countries.
In this regard, the current study analyzes how military expenditures changed between 2022 and 2024 not only in Russia and Ukraine but also in neighboring countries. A particularly interesting aspect is the comparison of Belarus’s military potential with that of other states in the region.
To assess military expenditures in Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia, official national defense budget data were used, adjusted upward based on SIPRI estimates. Additionally, for Ukraine, foreign military aid was included in the calculations. The analysis of Poland's and Lithuania’s military spending primarily relied on national statistics, supplemented by NATO reports as an additional resource.