Working Papers
Labour Reallocation and Productivity of Belarusian Economy: Consequences and Perspectives
The structure of Belarusian economy and labor market situation are facing considerable changes after COVID-19 pandemic, intra- and geopolitical destabilization. With aim to assess the efficiency of labor resources' reallocation in Belarusian economy and its influence on aggregate labour productivity growth I performed the decomposition of growth rate of aggregate labour productivity with four methods for the period 2011-2023. The results reveal that intersectoral reallocation in Belarusian economy hasn't been effective since 2015 and mitigates economic growth potential. The changes of intrasectoral productivity in several sectors are explained rather by employment reduction than by implementation of new productive workplaces. Taking into account the factor of relative prices in sectors makes noticeable impact on labour reallocation effect but doesn't solve the problem of its inefficiency. Among the reasons for losses in labour reallocation efficiency are: weak social defense system of unemployed and their economic discrimination; reduced opportunities for subsidized participation in programs of re-qualification according with major education; disbalance on labour market by qualification attribute; state sector inefficiency; mandatory assignment for young professionals, Intra- and geopolitical instability does not support the improvement of reallocation processes, catalyze emigration of working-age population and businesses as well as increase risks of human capital quality reduction.